Present and future heat stress of preschoolers in five Swedish cities.

The purpose of the study is to investigate possible future changes in meteorological variables that affect thermal comfort, as well as how these changes will affect five-year-old children. The study uses simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project. The research question is to assess whether there are changes in the number of days and hours of heat stress in the simulated future climates compared to current climate conditions, and if so, what are the potential consequences for children?

The results show that exposed outdoor kindergarten areas in Sweden already experience several days of heat stress per year in the current climate (2008–2020), and that this number is expected to increase in the future under all investigated climate scenarios. The study links this to a general increase in air temperatures across all five cities and highlights various factors such as warmer morning hours, and that shaded outdoor kindergarten areas will experience reduced heat stress. These results provide more detailed information on the extent and distribution of heat stress, which is relevant to understanding the potential consequences for children. The study does not provide a definitive answer to what the potential consequences of increased heat stress are for children.

The study compares existing meteorological data with simulations of data in the future. It uses observed meteorological data for the period 2008–2020 from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) to establish a basis for current climate conditions. These data include temperature, relative humidity, global radiation, wind speed, and air pressure. To estimate future climate conditions, the study uses simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project, especially from the regional climate model RCA4, developed by SMHI. The sample in this study consists of simulated representations of an unspecified number of 5-year-old children in five Swedish cities. The study simulates how these children are affected by heat in various scenarios.

Wallenberg, N., Rayner, D., Lindberg, F., & Thorsson, S. (2023). Present and future heat stress of preschoolers in five Swedish cities. Climate Risk Management, 40, 100508.